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HomeMy WebLinkAbout08. Vail Reservation Activity Outlook as of 2022-12-31Executive Summary Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 Executive Summary Data based on a sample of up to 26 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2421 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 63.76% of 3797 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2022/23 2021/22 Year over Year % Variance Vail Occupancy for last month (Dec) changed by (-7.3%)Occupancy (Dec) :57.9%62.4%-7.3% Vail ADR for last month (Dec) changed by (0.0%)ADR (Dec) :$ 791 $ 791 0.0% Vail RevPAR for last month (Dec) changed by (-7.3%)RevPAR (Dec) :$ 457 $ 493 -7.3% Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD Vail Occupancy for next month (Jan) changed by (-6.1%)Occupancy (Jan) :59.5%63.3%-6.1% Vail ADR for next month (Jan) changed by (10.6%)ADR (Jan) :$ 765 $ 692 10.6% Vail RevPAR for next month (Jan) changed by (3.9%)RevPAR (Jan) :$ 455 $ 438 3.9% Historical past 6 months Month Actual Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD Vail Occupancy for the past 6 months changed by (-6.8%)Occupancy 46.9%50.3%-6.8% Vail ADR for the past 6 months changed by (3.1%)ADR $ 437 $ 423 3.1% Vail RevPAR for the past 6 months changed by (-3.9%)RevPAR $ 205 $ 213 -3.9% Future 6 Month On The Books Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD Vail Occupancy for the furture 6 months changed by (-5.8%)Occupancy 33.0%35.1%-5.8% Vail ADR for the future 6 months changed by (10.6%)ADR $ 711 $ 643 10.6% Vail RevPAR for the future 6 months changed by (4.1%)RevPAR $ 235 $ 225 4.1% Incremental Pacing - % Variance in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Dec 31, 2022 vs. Previous Year Rooms Booked during last month (Dec,22) compared to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (Dec,21) for all arrival dates has changed by (2.9%)Booking Pace (Dec)6.1%6.0%2.9% * Inntopia Census: Total number of rooms reported by participating Inntopia properties as available for short-term rental in the reporting month. This number can vary monthly as inventories and report participants change over time. ** Destination Census: The total number of rooms available for rental within the community as established by the and adjusted for properties that have opened / closed since that time. This number varies infrequently as new properties start, or existing properties cease operations. © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. No parts of this work may be reproduced in any form or by any means, graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping or information storage and retrieval systems - without the written permission of the copyright holder. Products that are referred to in this document may be either trademarks and/or registered trademarks of the respective owners. The publisher and the author make no claim to these Trademarks. While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this document, the publisher and the author assume no responsibility for errors or omissions, or for damages resulting from the use of information contained in this document or from the use of programs and source code that may accompany it. In no event shall the publisher and the author be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damage caused or alleged to have been caused directly or indirectly by this document. Vail Paid Occupancy (Most Recent Data) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Average Daily Rate (Most Recent Data) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Revenue Per Available Room (Most Recent Data) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Variance in YTD Occupancy and ADR Res Activity Outlook 2022/23 vs 2021/22 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Paid Occupancy (Winter-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Average Daily Rate (Winter-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Revenue Per Available Room (Winter-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Variance in YTD Occupancy and ADR (Winter-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Paid Occupancy (Summer-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Average Daily Rate (Summer-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Revenue Per Available Room (Summer-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Variance in YTD Occupancy and ADR (Summer-to-date) Res Activity Outlook 2022/23 vs 2021/22 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Vail Paid Occupancy Fill Analysis Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 *Based on providing complete pacing data within a given month of occupancy only. Results may differ from those presented elsewhere in report if property set differs. **Results for "Percent Variance in incremental fill" indicate how room nights booked during the month just ended compare to room nights booked during the same month in the prior year, for occupancy in the month just ended and for the upcoming five months (as well as the six-month period in total). These results provide an indication of the degree to which booking activity occurring during the month just ended was greater or less than booking activity occurring in the same month a year ago -- i.e. a measure of the strength of booking activity occurring during the month just ended. Vail Paid Occupancy (Most Recent Data) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Occ Rate: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy Occ Rate as of Dec 31, 2022 Occ Rate as of Dec 31, 2021 Occ Percent Variance in YTD Occ Rate Historic Actual Occ Rate CY Room Nights Available CY Room Nights Booked PY Room Nights Available PY Room Nights Booked # of Properties in sample Jul 22 59.1%67.8%-12.8%73,938 43,718 75,792 51,406 25 Aug 22 53.9%57.0%-5.4%75,148 40,522 75,049 42,770 26 Sep 22 50.2%48.5%3.5%72,754 36,535 72,457 35,155 25 Oct 22 31.4%35.0%-10.4%75,754 23,780 75,513 26,462 26 Nov 22 28.7%30.2%-5.0%72,866 20,937 73,178 22,123 26 Dec 22 57.9%62.4%-7.3%75,047 43,426 76,441 47,712 26 Jan 23 59.5%63.3%-6.1%65.0%74,505 44,321 75,498 47,808 26 Feb 23 59.0%64.0%-7.9%77.0%67,074 39,548 68,562 43,889 26 Mar 23 41.5%46.2%-10.1%72.0%73,998 30,705 75,574 34,883 26 Apr 23 14.2%14.8%-4.2%37.7%70,588 10,013 73,992 10,958 26 May 23 6.9%5.5%26.1%20.6%71,052 4,913 75,247 4,126 26 Jun 23 16.9%18.4%-8.1%48.2%71,347 12,051 73,475 13,510 26 Grand Total 40.1%42.7%-6.2%51.8%874,071 350,469 890,778 380,802 26 Historical Months Total 46.9%50.3%-6.8%50.3%445,507 208,918 448,430 225,628 26 On the Books Total 33.0%35.1%-5.8%53.3%428,564 141,551 442,348 155,174 26 Vail Average Daily Rate (Most Recent Data) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Average Daily Rate: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy ADR as of Dec 31, 2022 ADR as of Dec 31, 2021 ADR Percent Variance in YTD Adr Rate Historic Actual ADR CY Room Nights Booked CY Room Revenue Booked PY Room Nights Booked PY Room Revenue Booked # of Properties in sample Jul 22 $405.82 $364.97 11.2%43,718 $ 17,741,524 51,406 $ 18,761,758 25 Aug 22 $374.99 $349.74 7.2%40,522 $ 15,195,497 42,770 $ 14,958,405 26 Sep 22 $307.82 $303.26 1.5%36,535 $ 11,246,359 35,155 $ 10,661,237 25 Oct 22 $260.70 $240.41 8.4%23,780 $ 6,199,414 26,462 $ 6,361,626 26 Nov 22 $310.84 $319.64 -2.8%20,937 $ 6,508,045 22,123 $ 7,071,481 26 Dec 22 $790.61 $790.53 0.0%43,426 $ 34,333,067 47,712 $ 37,717,688 26 Jan 23 $765.25 $691.81 10.6%$701.36 44,321 $ 33,916,862 47,808 $ 33,074,206 26 Feb 23 $836.03 $729.08 14.7%$773.89 39,548 $ 33,063,312 43,889 $ 31,998,407 26 Mar 23 $818.94 $748.45 9.4%$789.91 30,705 $ 25,145,527 34,883 $ 26,108,333 26 Apr 23 $382.45 $354.29 7.9%$368.03 10,013 $ 3,829,487 10,958 $ 3,882,289 26 May 23 $193.15 $234.30 -17.6%$235.88 4,913 $ 948,958 4,126 $ 966,724 26 Jun 23 $306.41 $274.39 11.7%$328.34 12,051 $ 3,692,519 13,510 $ 3,707,068 26 Grand Total $ 547 $ 513 6.7%$ 520 350,469 $ 191,820,571 380,802 $ 195,269,221 26 Historical Months Total $ 437 $ 423 3.1%$ 423 208,918 $ 91,223,906 225,628 $ 95,532,194 26 On the Books Total $ 711 $ 643 10.6%$ 613 141,551 $ 100,596,665 155,174 $ 99,737,027 26 Vail Revenue Per Available Room (Most Recent Data) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com RevPAR Rate: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy RevPAR as of Dec 31, 2022 RevPAR as of Dec 31, 2021 RevPAR Percent Variance in YTD RevPAR Rate Historic Actual RevPAR CY Room Nights Available CY Room Revenue Booked PY Room Nights Available PY Room Revenue Booked # of Properties in sample Jul 22 $239.95 $247.54 -3.1%73,938 $ 17,741,524 75,792 $ 18,761,758 25 Aug 22 $202.21 $199.32 1.5%75,148 $ 15,195,497 75,049 $ 14,958,405 26 Sep 22 $154.58 $147.14 5.1%72,754 $ 11,246,359 72,457 $ 10,661,237 25 Oct 22 $81.84 $84.25 -2.9%75,754 $ 6,199,414 75,513 $ 6,361,626 26 Nov 22 $89.32 $96.63 -7.6%72,866 $ 6,508,045 73,178 $ 7,071,481 26 Dec 22 $457.49 $493.42 -7.3%75,047 $ 34,333,067 76,441 $ 37,717,688 26 Jan 23 $455.23 $438.08 3.9%$456.05 74,505 $ 33,916,862 75,498 $ 33,074,206 26 Feb 23 $492.94 $466.71 5.6%$596.23 67,074 $ 33,063,312 68,562 $ 31,998,407 26 Mar 23 $339.81 $345.47 -1.6%$568.72 73,998 $ 25,145,527 75,574 $ 26,108,333 26 Apr 23 $54.25 $52.47 3.4%$138.84 70,588 $ 3,829,487 73,992 $ 3,882,289 26 May 23 $13.36 $12.85 4.0%$48.62 71,052 $ 948,958 75,247 $ 966,724 26 Jun 23 $51.75 $50.45 2.6%$158.29 71,347 $ 3,692,519 73,475 $ 3,707,068 26 Grand Total $ 219 $ 219 0.1%$ 269 874,071 $ 191,820,571 890,778 $ 195,269,221 26 Historical Months Total $ 205 $ 213 -3.9%$ 213 445,507 $ 91,223,906 448,430 $ 95,532,194 26 On the Books Total $ 235 $ 225 4.1%$ 327 428,564 $ 100,596,665 442,348 $ 99,737,027 26 Vail Data Tables (Winter-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Winter Bookings: Revenue Per Available Room: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy RevPAR as of Dec 31, 2022 RevPAR as of Dec 31, 2021 Percent Variance in YTD RevPAR Historic Actual RevPAR CY Room Nights Available CY Room Revenue Booked PY Room Nights Available PY Room Revenue Booked # of Properties in sample Nov 22 $89.32 $96.63 -7.6%72,866 $ 6,508,045 73,178 $ 7,071,481 26 Dec 22 $457.49 $493.42 -7.3%75,047 $ 34,333,067 76,441 $ 37,717,688 26 Jan 23 $455.23 $438.08 3.9%$456.05 74,505 $ 33,916,862 75,498 $ 33,074,206 26 Feb 23 $492.94 $466.71 5.6%$596.23 67,074 $ 33,063,312 68,562 $ 31,998,407 26 Mar 23 $339.81 $345.47 -1.6%$568.72 73,998 $ 25,145,527 75,574 $ 26,108,333 26 Apr 23 $54.25 $52.47 3.4%$138.84 70,588 $ 3,829,487 73,992 $ 3,882,289 26 Winter Total $ 315 $ 316 -0.1%$ 391 434,078 $ 136,796,300 443,245 $ 139,852,404 26 Winter Bookings: Average Daily Rate: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy ADR as of Dec 31, 2022 ADR as of Dec 31, 2021 Percent Variance in YTD Adr Rate Historic Actual ADR CY Room Nights Booked CY Room Revenue Booked PY Room Nights Booked PY Room Revenue Booked # of Properties in sample Nov 22 $310.84 $319.64 -2.8%20,937 $ 6,508,045 22,123 $ 7,071,481 26 Dec 22 $790.61 $790.53 0.0%43,426 $ 34,333,067 47,712 $ 37,717,688 26 Jan 23 $765.25 $691.81 10.6%$701.36 44,321 $ 33,916,862 47,808 $ 33,074,206 26 Feb 23 $836.03 $729.08 14.7%$773.89 39,548 $ 33,063,312 43,889 $ 31,998,407 26 Mar 23 $818.94 $748.45 9.4%$789.91 30,705 $ 25,145,527 34,883 $ 26,108,333 26 Apr 23 $382.45 $354.29 7.9%$368.03 10,013 $ 3,829,487 10,958 $ 3,882,289 26 Winter Total $ 724 $ 674 7.4%$ 682 188,950 $ 136,796,300 207,373 $ 139,852,404 26 Winter Bookings: Occ Rate: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy Occ Rate as of Dec 31, 2022 Occ Rate as of Dec 31, 2021 Occ Percent Variance in YTD Occ Rate Historic Actual Occ Rate CY Room Nights Available CY Room Nights Booked PY Room Nights Available PY Room Nights Booked # of Properties in sample Nov 22 28.7%30.2%-5.0%72,866 20,937 73,178 22,123 26 Dec 22 57.9%62.4%-7.3%75,047 43,426 76,441 47,712 26 Jan 23 59.5%63.3%-6.1%65.0%74,505 44,321 75,498 47,808 26 Feb 23 59.0%64.0%-7.9%77.0%67,074 39,548 68,562 43,889 26 Mar 23 41.5%46.2%-10.1%72.0%73,998 30,705 75,574 34,883 26 Apr 23 14.2%14.8%-4.2%37.7%70,588 10,013 73,992 10,958 26 Winter Total 43.5%46.8%-7.0%57.3%434,078 188,950 443,245 207,373 26 Vail Data Tables (Summer-to-date) Res Activity Outlook as of Dec 31, 2022 © 2023 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. DBA Inntopia Inntopia's business practices, metrics, reports, systems and procedures and all subscriber data is CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION, and protected by law. Reproduction or distribution is prohibited. All individual Inntopia subscriber data is kept strictly confidential and displayed only when aggregated with other similar data and indistinguishable as a result. Inntopia, DestiMetrics@Inntopia.com Summer Bookings: Revenue Per Available Room: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy RevPAR as of Dec 31, 2022 RevPAR as of Dec 31, 2021 Percent Variance in YTD RevPAR Rate Historic Actual RevPAR CY Room Nights Available CY Room Revenue Booked PY Room Nights Available PY Room Revenue Booked # of Properties in sample May 23 $13.36 $12.85 4.0%$48.62 71,052 $ 948,958 75,247 $ 966,724 26 Jun 23 $51.75 $50.45 2.6%$158.29 71,347 $ 3,692,519 73,475 $ 3,707,068 26 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Summer Total $ 33 $ 31 3.7%$ 103 142,399 $ 4,641,477 148,722 $ 4,673,792 26 Summer Bookings: Average Daily Rate: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy ADR as of Dec 31, 2022 ADR as of Dec 31, 2021 Percent Variance in YTD Adr Rate Historic Actual ADR CY Room Nights Booked CY Room Revenue Booked PY Room Nights Booked PY Room Revenue Booked # of Properties in sample May 23 $193.15 $234.30 -17.6%$235.88 4,913 $ 948,958 4,126 $ 966,724 26 Jun 23 $306.41 $274.39 11.7%$328.34 12,051 $ 3,692,519 13,510 $ 3,707,068 26 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Summer Total $ 274 $ 265 3.2%$ 301 16,964 $ 4,641,477 17,636 $ 4,673,792 26 Summer Bookings: Occ Rate: YTD 2022/23 VS. YTD 2021/22 Month of Occupancy Occ Rate as of Dec 31, 2022 Occ Rate as of Dec 31, 2021 Occupancy Percent Variance in YTD Occ Rate Historic Actual Occ Rate CY Room Nights Available CY Room Nights Booked PY Room Nights Available PY Room Nights Booked # of Properties in sample May 23 6.9%5.5%26.1%20.6%71,052 4,913 75,247 4,126 26 Jun 23 16.9%18.4%-8.1%48.2%71,347 12,051 73,475 13,510 26 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Summer Total 11.9%11.9%0.5%34.4%142,399 16,964 148,722 17,636 26