HomeMy WebLinkAbout05. Vail Production Notes as of 2023-07-31Copyright (c) 2023, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 07/31/2023
Vail Production Notes
***Participation Note: Please note that the 07/31/23 RAO and DOR reports represent 25 of 26 properties in the Vail DestiMetrics
program***
RAO PRODUCTION NOTES:
General RAO Notes
➢ All months are showing a decrease in inventory compared to last year at this time
o July: -3,768 or -122 units per day
o August: -3,059 or -99 units per day
o September: -2,965 or -99 units per day
o October: -3,898 or -126 units per day
o November: -3,909 or -130 units per day
o December: -2,157 or -70 units per day
o January: -1,965 or -63 units per day
➢ On the books occupancy (23.6%) is up +7.7% (-1.1% last month) over last year (21.9%), while historic actual
occupancy (51.4%) is down -0.9% (+0.1% last month) over last year (51.9%)
➢ On the books ADR ($483) is up +1.4% (-2.8% last month) over last year ($477), while historic actual ADR ($590) is
up +4.7% (+6.6% last month) over last year ($564)
➢ On the books RevPAR ($114) is up +9.2% (-3.9% last month) over last year ($105), while historic actual RevPAR
($304) is up +3.8% (+6.7% last month) over last year ($293)
Summer Season
➢ July gained +10.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in July
o Bookings made in July for July are up +5.9% in absolute variance vs those made last year in July for July
➢ August gained +10.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in July
o Bookings made in July for August are up +2.0% in absolute variance vs those made last year in July for
August
➢ September gained +5.7% as an absolute measure of occupancy in July
o Bookings made in July for September are down -0.2% in absolute variance vs those made last year in July
for September
➢ October gained +3.0% as an absolute measure of occupancy in July
o Bookings made in July for October are down -0.2% in absolute variance vs those made last year in July
for October
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($126), summer season is down -1.2% (-5.7% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($127)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($350), summer season is down -0.7% (-1.5% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($352)
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (36.0%), summer season is down -0.5% (-4.3% last report) compared to last year at
this time (36.2%)
➢ July and August are experiencing an occupancy gain over last summer season
➢ 3 months, May, September, and October, are experiencing an ADR gain over last summer season
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➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire summer season there are 414,370 room nights available, a -4.5% (-4.2% last report)
decrease over last summer season (434,100)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire summer season there are 149,116 room nights booked, a -5.0% (-8.3% last report)
decrease over last summer season (156,967)
Winter Season
➢ November gained +1.4% as an absolute measure of occupancy in July
o Bookings made in July for November are down -0.4% in absolute variance vs those made last year in July
for November
➢ December gained +3.4% as an absolute measure of occupancy in July
o Bookings made in July for December are up +0.3% in absolute variance vs those made last year in July
for December
➢ January has just come on the books and is showing 24.7% occupancy, up +45.3% over last year at this time
(17.0%)
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($126), winter season is up +20.7% (+5.3% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($104)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($747), winter season is down -7.8% (-15.0% last report) compared to last year at this time
($811)
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (16.9%), winter is up +31.0% (+23.9% last report) compared to last year at this time
(12.9%)
➢ All months are showing an occupancy increase over last winter season
➢ Only November is showing an ADR increase over last winter season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire winter season there are currently 208,182 room nights available, a -3.7% (-3.0% last
report) decrease over last winter season (216,213)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire winter season there are currently 14,514 room nights booked, a +20.2% (+20.2% last
report) increase over last winter season (12,071)
(This area is intentional left blank)
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DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
Summer Season Monthly Occupancy Pacing
**Above is a depiction of how average daily occupancy has increased for each summer season month in between reporting periods , starting with
the May 15th reporting cycle**
➢ Since the last report, October has experienced the largest increase (+11.6%) in average daily occupancy
➢ Since the last report, July has experienced the smallest increase (+4.5%) in average daily occupancy
General DOR Notes
➢ The Average Daily Occupancy for July 1, 2023 – January 31, 2024 is: 36.5%
➢ Average Daily Performance for the current month and upcoming 6, July 1st, 2023 to January 31st, 2024 has
improved since last report, and is currently up +2.9% (+2.2% last report) compared to last year
➢ Room Nights Booked (RNB) for the current month and upcoming 6, July 1st, 2023 to January 31st, 2024 total
182,512 and are currently up +4,694 or +2.6%, (+5,644 or +3.5% last report) compared to last year at this time
(177,818)
➢ Since the last report (07/15), bookings activity for July 1st through January 31st, 2024 has yielded a net of +14,598
or +14,598 new bookings. This level of net booking activity has increased +11.9% (-0.9% last report) from the last
report (+13,051)
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
➢ New booking’s arrival date distribution of the total +14,598 (+13,051 last report) added since last report:
o July: +1,253 (+4,919 last report) or +8.6% (+37.7% last report)
o August: +3,348 (+3,473 last report) or +23.0% (+26.6% last report)
o September: +2,040 (+1,769 last report) or +13.9 (+13.6% last report)
o October: +1,154 (+1,176 last report) or +7.9% (+9.0% last report)
20
%
43
.
0
%
44
.
2
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35
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3
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27
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1
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13
.
7
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20
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46
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3
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49
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7
%
39
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3
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29
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7
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15
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0
%
50
.
9
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52
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5
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40
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8
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30
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4
%
15
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1
%
52
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4
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58
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9
%
44
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3
%
33
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5
%
15
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5
%
66
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0
%
49
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5
%
36
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4
%
17
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3
%
69
.
0
%
55
.
2
%
40
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0
%
19
.
3
%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
May June July August September October
Vail DOR-based Average Daily Occupancy Pacing: Summer Season 2023
Average Daily Occupancy as of 5/15 Average Daily Occupancy as of 5/31 Average Daily Occupancy as of 6/15
Average Daily Occupancy as of 6/30 Average Daily Occupancy as of 7/15 Average Daily Occupancy as of 7/31
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o November: +2,220 (+553 last report) or +15.2% (+4.2% last report)
o December: +681 (+1,161 last report) or +4.7% (+8.9% last report)
o January: +3,902 or +26.7%
**Above is a depiction of how many net new bookings were acquired in each month included in this report**
Monthly DOR Trends
July
➢ July has added a very small amount of net new bookings compared to last report, and since booking pace was
stronger last year at this time, the year over year bookings underperformance has grown further, while the
month has actualized with an average daily performance of +1.2% (+0.0% last report)
o July Average Daily Occupancy is 69.0% (66.0% last report)
o There are -2,345 (-2,075 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +1,253 (+4,919 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 29th, with +211 bookings
added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 14th, with -55 bookings
cancelled
o The largest outperformance is on the 4th, up +23.6% (+23.1% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 20th, down -15.3% (-17.8% last report) over last year at this time
o Daily inventory is lower than last year at this time
1,253
3,348
2,040
1,154
2,220
681
3,902
July August September October November December January
Net New Bookings Added: 7/31/23 Vail DOR Report
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August
➢ August has nearly matched the net new bookings reported last, though booking pace at this time last year was
strong as the year over year bookings underperformance increases, inversely, average daily performance has
improved slightly to +1.7% (+1.2% last report)
o August Average Daily Occupancy is 55.2% (49.5% last report)
o There are -1,118 (-516 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,348 (+3,473 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 2nd, with +182 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings since last report
o The largest outperformance is on the 11th, up +21.0% (+21.1% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 19th, down -14.8% (-14.7% last report) over last year at this time
o Daily inventory is lower than last year at this time
September
➢ September’s strong net new bookings addition wasn’t enough to improve the year over year bookings
underperformance, which has grown further, and additionally average daily performance is now even with last
year at this time +0.0% (+0.4% last report)
o September Average Daily Occupancy is 40.0% (36.4% last report)
o There are -1,758 (-730 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +2,040 (+1,769 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 2nd, with +144 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings since last report
o The largest outperformance was on the 14th, up +3.7% (+10.3% last report), and has shifted to the 13th,
up +5.2% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 19th, down -8.6% (-10.1% last report), and has shifted to the
18th, down -8.7% over last year at this time
o Daily inventory is lower than last year at this time
October
➢ October has added fewer net new bookings than last report, which has led to a decline in the year over year
bookings outperformance as average daily performance also falls to +4.3% (+4.9% last report)
o October Average Daily Occupancy is 19.3% (17.3% last report)
o There are +2,424 (+3,262 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +1,154 (+1,176 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 3rd, with +132 bookings
added both days
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings since last report
o The largest outperformance is on the 9th, up +32.0% (+30.9% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 2nd, down -13.7% (-14.8% last report) over last year at this time
o Daily inventory is lower than last year at this time
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November
➢ November has experienced a massive increase in net new bookings compared to last report, which has
bolstered the year over year bookings outperformance, and additionally average daily performance has
improved to +3.2% (+0.8% last report)
o November Average Daily Occupancy is 12.7% (9.3% last report)
o There are +1,689 (+244 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +2,220 (+553 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 6th, with +148 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings since last report
o The largest outperformance is on the 2nd, up +11.7% (+10.5% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 12th, -2.6% (-6.2% last report), and has shifted to the 11th,
down -3.9% over last year at this time
o Daily inventory is lower than last year at this time
December
➢ December has added roughly half as many net new bookings as was reported last, as such the year over year
bookings outperformance has weakened, and average daily performance has fallen to +2.6% (+2.8% last report)
o December Average Daily Occupancy is 26.1% (24.6% last report)
o There are +746 (+1,388 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +681 (+1,161 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 1st, with +75 bookings added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 10th, with -19 bookings
cancelled
o The largest outperformance is on the 5th, up +15.3% (+13.8% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 1st, down -0.8% (-3.8% last report), and has shifted to the 19th,
down -3.3% over last year at this time
o Daily inventory is lower than last year at this time
January
➢ January has experienced strong net new bookings since last report with the largest addition of all months
included, increasing the year over year bookings outperformance and average daily performance to +7.8%
(+5.3% last report)
o January Average Daily Occupancy is 32.3% (26.3% last report)
o There are +4,341 (+3,502 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,902 bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 26th, with +351 bookings
added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 21st, with -41 bookings
cancelled
o The largest outperformance is on the 29th, up +25.5% (+19.0% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 24th, down -1.6% (-3.1% last report), and has shifted to the
21st, down -7.1% over last year at this time
o Daily inventory is lower than last year at this time