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HomeMy WebLinkAbout09. Vail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-11-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of November 30, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,108 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 53.3% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2016/17 2015/16 Vail Yearover Year % Diff DestiMetrics IndustryWide Year over Year % Diff 29.5%29.7%-0.5%-5.3% $214 $206 4.0%6.3% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 53.1%49.5%7.1%2.7% $680 $590 15.3%10.0% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, January to May: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 54.5%52.3%4.1%8.1% $572 $530 8.1%5.0% 51.3%48.4%6.1%4.3% $603 $549 9.8%5.9% 30.4%36.0%-15.6%3.0% $571 $549 4.2%4.7% 12.9%9.9%30.4%-2.2% $250 $228 9.9%16.1% 41.4%39.4%-6.4%9.9% $374 $346 0.5%1.9% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Nov. 30, 2016 vs. Previous Year 6.4%6.9%-7.5%-7.9% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information:678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (November, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (November, 2015) for all arrival dates is down by (- 7.5%) Booking Pace (November): On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are up (30.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.9%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are down (-6.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (0.5%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are up (6.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.8%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-15.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (4.2%). Occupancy March ADR March Occupancy Rates for next month (December, 2016) are up (7.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (15.3%). Occupancy (December) : ADR (December) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are up (4.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.1%). Occupancy January ADR January DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (November, 2016) were down (-0.5%) compared to the same period last year (November, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was up (4.0%). Occupancy (November) : ADR (November) : MARKET OVERVIEW:All eyes were on the presidential election and potentially negative economic consequences as we headed into November and, to saythe least, most expectations were reversed.While polls and pundits incorrectly predicted the outcome of the election, they also missed the mark on the negative economic impact of such a result. The Dow Jones added more than 1000 points during the month, crossing the 19,000-point mark for the first time in its history, and has continued upward since. Employers continued adding jobs for the holiday, 178,000 of them, many of whichare expected to convert from holiday part-time to full-time in the New Year. Concurrently, consumer confidence jumped to its highest levels since October 2007, reaching 107.1 points and adding 6.9 percent during the month. In addition to these unexpected conditions, snow began falling at the end of November across much of the west, including in urban market that drive ‘backyard snow’bookings. The result is an increase in winter business across the industry aggregate. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for November was down -5.3 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was up 6.3 percent for the month. Bookings taken in November for arrival in November was down-26.0 percent (not shown).Locally, Vail Occupancy wasslightly down-0.5 percent in November versus 2015, while rate increased 4.0 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (June-November) occupancy (not shown) was up 12.1 percent compared tothe same period last year while rate increased by 11.0 percent. Bookings taken in November for arrival in November was down -49.0 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:To describe the air around the upcoming six months as uncertain is an understatement. With the US and the world heading into new territory, it remains to be seen whetherthe extremely positive economic fallout from the election will carry over to post-inauguration and implementation of new policies. The transition will take place during the peak months of winterseason, but much of the total season business will already be on-the-books by inauguration day on January 20, and so winter ‘16/17 may be able to take full advantage of current conditions and not beheavily impacted by any negative fallout that follows inauguration. Mountain consumer continue to be a robust customer baseandwe remind ourselves that defensive planning is worthwhile, butcurrent conditions, including robust snowfall in many locations, point to a successful winter season as-of this date, irrespective of national politics. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (December –May) is up 4.0 percent,while rate is also up 6.7 percent from the same period last year.Meanwhile, bookings made during November for arrival November -April was down -7.9 percent compared to the same period in 2015.Locally, Vail on-the-books for December is up 7.1 percent withan inccrease in rate of 15.3 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play forthe other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in three ofthe five months while rates are up in all five of the months. Occupancy gains are led by April (30.4 percent) and February (6.1 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (December -May) inaggregate has decreased -2.0 percent while rate has increased 8.4 percent. Bookings taken in November for arrival November through April was down -7.5 percent.