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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10. Vail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2018-02-28Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of February 28, 2018 Data based on a sample of up to 26 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,699 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 68.3% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2017/18 2016/17 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 70.5%75.7%-7.0%-2.9% $625 $658 -5.0%5.2% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 59.3%62.4%-5.0%-3.6% $618 $622 -0.6%2.3% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, April to August: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 17.9%24.4%-26.5%1.4% $287 $289 -0.6%-1.2% 11.6%7.7%49.5%15.5% $168 $159 5.9%12.0% 30.0%24.3%23.2%13.9% $217 $217 -0.1%1.8% 25.5%25.9%-1.5%2.5% $279 $263 5.8%4.4% 18.9%16.6%13.3%2.0% $271 $273 -0.5%-5.8% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Feb. 28, 2018 vs. Previous Year 6.5%5.0%28.4%6.0% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Laura Waniuk, Event Marketing Liaison- Economic Development; (970) 477-3417 mailto:lwaniuk@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar Inntopia - DestiMetrics Contact Information: info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2018 - Sterling Valley Systems. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (February, 2018) compared to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (February, 2017) for all arrival dates is up by (28.4%) Booking Pace (February): On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are down (-1.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (5.8%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (13.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-0.5%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (49.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (5.9%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (23.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-0.1%). Occupancy June ADR June Occupancy Rates for next month (March, 2018) are down (-5.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also down (-0.6%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-26.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-0.6%). Occupancy April ADR April DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (February, 2018) were down (-7.0%) compared to the same period last year (February, 2017) , while Average Daily Rate was also down (- 5.0%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : MARKET OVERVIEW: After battling a so-far uncooperative winter season, February finally brought the weather most mountain destinations had been waiting for. According to zrankings.com’s Christopher Steiner, February snowfall was most favorable for mountain destinations in the Rockies, primarily in Colorado and Utah. February was another month full of stock market volatility as the Dow Jones industrial average experienced its most significant point decline in history (-1,100 points) on February 5th, effectively wiping out gains experienced after the 2018 GOP tax plan announcement. The Dow Jones industrial average closed the month at 25,029.2 points, a measure 20 percent, or 4216.96 points, above the February 28, 2017 close. Unemployment has stayed stagnant at 4.1 percent for the past 4 months, igniting conversations between economists as to what “full employment” means for the US economy going forward.February domestic job creation exceeded analysts’ expectations with 313,000 jobs created, when only 195,000 were expected. Mountain destinations are hopefully that the weather will continue to cooperate and bring more occupants into town for the remainder of the winter.Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -7.0 percent in February versus 2017, while there was a decrease in rate of -5.0 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (September-February) occupancy (not shown) was down -9.1 percent compared to the same period last year accompanied with a decrease in rate of -1.2 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival in February were up 79.3 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:2018 has brought heavy market volatility so far, and from recent economic and political news, this trend may continue. Globally,new developments on the Korean Peninsula may impact global markets in any number of ways, depending on how talks now tentatively scheduled for May go, while domestically, new steel and aluminum tariffs are just a few weeks away, and employers and consumers are anxious to see what changes are to come. Speculation of price increases and loss of jobs are bringing negative sentiment to the table domestically, though there is no immediately impact apparent in the data just yet. Additionally, the exclusion of Canada and Mexico from those same tariffs may have started to strengthen hope for a positive resolution to NAFTA renegotiations. Whether these policies have a large impact on the destination travel industry remains to be seen. Historicall y, March has been a critical month for mountain destinations, and DestiMetrics West Industry Wide data is showing occupancy down -3.75 percent for the month, while rate continues it’s 21 consecutive months i ncrease, and is up 2.41 percent. With the month of August now in scope, DestiMetrics National Industry Wide summer data is showing occupancy up 6.7 percent, while rate continues to increase,up 1.9 percent from last year. June added the most bookings in the month of February with an increase of 2.5% while increases are also noted for every month within scope. While volatility in markets and changes in trade policies will affect consumers and employers in some sense, occupancy and rate are both posting on the books gains for the summer season, indicating a healthy economy with discre tionary income that isn’t dissatisfied by increases in rate.Locally, Vail on- the-books for March is down -5.0 percent accompanied with a decrease in rate of -0.6 percent compared to this time last year. Year over year occupancy for April is down -26.5 percent. Occupancy for six months on-the-books (February-August) in aggregate has increased 4.6 percent while rate has increased 0.4 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival February -July were up 28.4 percent.