HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Production_Notes_04-30-2020Copyright (c) 2020, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 04/30/2020
Vail Production Notes
CV-19 CLOSURES NOTES:
➢ There are currently 16 properties closed due to COVID-19. These properties' closure dates range from April 1 -
May 31 with some properties planning to reopen in May
o Arrabelle at Vail Square
o Christiania Lodge
o Destination Resorts Vail
o Four Seasons Resort Vail
o Grand Hyatt Vail
o Lodge Tower
o Sitzmark Lodge
o Sonnenalp Resort of Vail
o The Wren
o Tivoli Lodge
o Vail International Condos
o Vail Mountain Lodge
o Vail Residences at Cascade Village
o Vail Spa Condos
o Vail Marriott
o Ritz-Carlton Residences
RAO PRODUCTION NOTES:
General RAO Notes:
➢ All months, except May, are showing an increase in inventory compared to last year at this time
o April: +802 RNA or +27 units per day
o May: -339 RNA or -11 units per day
o June: +1,890 RNA or +63 units per day
o July: +1,835 RNA or +59 units per day
o August: +1,518 RNA or +49 units per day
o September: +901 RNA or +30 units per day
o October: +1,396 RNA or +45 units per day
➢ On the books occupancy is down -50.7% (-15.8% last month) over last year, while historic actual occupancy is
also down -20.9% (-11.1% last month) over last year
➢ On the books ADR is up +9.1% (+2.3% last month) over last year, while historic actual ADR is also up +6.7%
(+0.6% last month) over last year
➢ On the books RevPAR is down -46.2% (-13.8% last month) over last year while historic actual RevPAR is also
down -15.6% (-10.6% last month) over last year
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Winter Season:
➢ April gained +0.7% as an absolute measure of occupancy in April
o Bookings made in April for April are down -9% in absolute variance vs those made last year in April for
April
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, winter season closed down -15.6% (-4.2% last month) compared to last year at this
time
➢ As a measure of ADR, winter season closed up +6.7% (+5.1% last month) compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, winter season closed down -20.9% (-8.8% last month) compared to last year at this
time
➢ December and February had slight occupancy gains over last winter season
➢ December, January, and March had ADR gains over last winter season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire winter season there were 467,184 room nights available, a +1.2% (-10.1% last report)
increase over last winter season (461,676)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire winter season there were 200,886 room nights booked, a -20.0% (-18.0% last report)
decrease over last winter season (251,024)
Summer Season:
➢ May lost -0.3% as an absolute measure of occupancy in April
o Bookings made in April for May are down -5.4% in absolute variance vs those made last year in April for
May
➢ June lost -12.5% as an absolute measure of occupancy in April
o Bookings made in April for June are down -20.2% in absolute variance vs those made last year in April
for June
➢ July lost -5.4% as an absolute measure of occupancy in April
o Bookings made in April for July are down -11.9% in absolute variance vs those made last year in April for
July
➢ August lost -3.6% as an absolute measure of occupancy in April
o Bookings made in April for August are down -9.3% in absolute variance vs those made last year in April
for August
➢ September lost -2.8% as an absolute measure of occupancy in April
o Bookings made in April for September are down -5.6% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
April for September
➢ October has just come on the books and is showing 6.3% occupancy, down -32.5% over last year (9.3%)
➢ As a measure of RevPAR summer season is down -46.2% (-4.3% last month) compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of ADR summer season is up +9.1% (+4.7% last month) compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of Occupancy summer season is down -50.7% (-8.7% last month) compared to last year at this
time
➢ No months are showing occupancy gains over last summer season
➢ June, July, September, and October are showing ADR gains over last summer season
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➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire summer season there are 447,074 room nights available, a +1.6% (-6.6% last report)
increase over last summer season (439,873)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire summer season there are 50,285 room nights booked, a -50% (-14.7% last report)
decrease over last summer season (100,321)
DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
General DOR Notes:
➢ Since the last report (04/15), bookings activity for April 1st through October 31st has yielded a net of -6,752
bookings, or 6,752 cancellations. This level of net booking activity is significantly reduced from the net booking
activity levels of the last report (04/15) which yielded net -9,328 bookings, or 9,328 cancellations.
➢ While the net activity still remains negative, pointing towards the continued trend of cancellation prevalence,
the reduction in net booking activity closer to 0 indicates that there could be a slowing of cancellations, or an
uptick in booking behavior, and has the potential to be the start of a trend towards a sort of normalcy.
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
April
➢ April closed the month severely down, though most of the cancellations came in the prior reporting periods as
only 21 bookings have been cancelled since the 04/15 report
o Of the 16 properties reporting closures, all are closed in April
o There are -24,694 (-21,204 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Average daily performance is -31.6% (-29.4% last report)
o Since the last report, -21 (-301 last report) bookings have been cancelled for the month
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 17th, with -12 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 29th, with +55 bookings added
o Inventory is lower than last year for the first half of the month while it is slightly higher for the second
half of the month
May
➢ May has experienced varied behavior since the last report as there have been small additions of bookings for the
10 days of the month while for the rest of the month cancellation levels are much lower than noted in the last
report
o There are -10,168 (-7,904 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Average daily performance experienced further decline to -14% (-10.9% last report) and is characterized
not by the loss of bookings since the last report, but the net loss versus the bookings gained last year
around this time
o Since the last report, -152 (-488 last report) bookings have been cancelled for the month
o Memorial Day Weekend is on average down -12.3% (-7.3% last report) with a total of -877 (-516 last
report) less bookings over last year at this time
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o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 23rd with -32 bookings cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 4th with +54 bookings added
o Inventory is higher than last year for the entire month
June
➢ June continues to experience high cancellation volumes, which can be largely due to the uncertainty
surrounding re-opening guidelines, and remains severely underperforming last year
o There are -22,980 (-16,970 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o June’s average daily performance is -30.9% (-23.9% last report)
o Since the last report, -1,730 (-7,296 last report) bookings have been cancelled for the month
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 28th, with -159 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 10th, with +41 bookings added
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year for the entire month
July
➢ July is showing a slightly higher cancellation volume than June, though there remains a single day outperforming
last year, the 31st, and has shown a healthy increase in bookings from the 7th to the 11th
o There are -11,008 (-6,054 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been -1,854 (-1,154 last report) bookings for the month
o July’s average daily performance is -14.7% (-8.7% last report)
o The 4th of July is currently down -13.4% (-9.3% last report) with -324 (-210 last report) less bookings over
last year at this time
o The largest outperformance is on the 31st up +1.0% (+4.8% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 16th, with -375 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 8th, with +218 bookings added
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year for the entire month
August
➢ August continues to hold onto a handful of outperforming days despite having the highest cancellation volume,
since last report, of all months included
o There are -2,605 (+2,717 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Average daily performance fell to -3.8% (+3.1% last report)
o Since the last report, there have been -2,027 bookings for the month
o The largest outperformance was on the 21st up +3.2% (+20.9% last report) and has now shifted to the
2nd, up +4.3% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 30th, down -11.5% (-7.2% last report) and has now shifted to
the 14th, down -18.8% over last year at this time
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 21st, with -336 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 29th, with +63 bookings added
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year for the entire month
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September
➢ September is experiencing further decline from the last report as average daily performance fell to -2.5% (+3.2%
last report)
o There are -1,524 (+2,557 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been -1,953 bookings for the month
o The largest outperformance is on the 14th up +8.4% (+22.4% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 7th, down -24.3% (-22.3% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 14th, with -215 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 25th, with +84 bookings added
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year for the entire month
October
➢ October has now been on the books for 2 reporting cycles and is showing its heaviest year-over-year decline in
the middle of the month while few days in the beginning and end of the month remain outperforming last year
o There are -1,661 (-983 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Average daily performance has experienced further decline to -3.0% (-1.6% last report)
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 15th, with -92 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 3rd, with +124 bookings added
o The largest outperformance is on the 9th, up +6.7% (+10.0% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 18th, down -9.1% (-19.0% last report) and has now shifted to
the 19th, down -19.3% compared to last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year for the entire month