HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Production_Notes_05-31-2020Copyright (c) 2020, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 05/31/2020
Vail Production Notes
CV-19 CLOSURES NOTES:
➢ There are currently 16 properties closed due to COVID-19. These properties' closure dates range from April 1 -
May 31 with some properties planning to reopen in May
o Arrabelle at Vail Square
o Christiania Lodge
o Destination Resorts Vail
o Four Seasons Resort Vail
o Grand Hyatt Vail
o Lodge Tower
o Sitzmark Lodge
o Sonnenalp Resort of Vail
o The Wren
o Tivoli Lodge
o Vail International Condos
o Vail Mountain Lodge
o Vail Residences at Cascade Village
o Vail Spa Condos
o Vail Marriott
o Ritz-Carlton Residences
RAO PRODUCTION NOTES:
General RAO Notes:
➢ All months, except November, are showing an increase in inventory compared to last year at this time
o May: +783 RNA or +25 units per day
o June: +243 RNA or +8 units per day
o July: +2,535 RNA or +82 units per day
o August: +2,072 RNA or +67 units per day
o September: +1,176 RNA or +39 units per day
o October: +1,511 RNA or +49 units per day
o November: -1,121 RNA or -37 units per day
➢ On the books occupancy is down -63.4% (-50.7% last month) over last year, while historic actual occupancy is
also down -25.6% (-20.% last month) over last year
➢ On the books ADR is up +5.7% (+9.1% last month) over last year, while historic actual ADR is also up +11.3%
(+6.7% last month) over last year
➢ On the books RevPAR is down -61.3% (-46.2% last month) over last year while historic actual RevPAR is also
down -17.2% (-15.6% last month) over last year
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Summer Season:
➢ May gained +3.9% as an absolute measure of occupancy in May
o Bookings made in May for May are down -2.2% in absolute variance vs those made last year in May for
May
➢ June lost -0.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in May
o Bookings made in May for June are down -8.2% in absolute variance vs those made last year in May for
June
➢ July lost -4.9% as an absolute measure of occupancy in May
o Bookings made in May for July are down -12.5% in absolute variance vs those made last year in May for
July
➢ August lost -5.7% as an absolute measure of occupancy in May
o Bookings made in May for August are down -12.3% in absolute variance vs those made last year in May
for August
➢ September lost -1.3% as an absolute measure of occupancy in May
o Bookings made in May for September are down -2.9% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
May for September
➢ October lost -0.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in May
o Bookings made in May for September are down -1.9% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
May for September
➢ As a measure of RevPAR summer season is down -63.8% (-46.2% last month) compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of ADR summer season is up +6.1% (+9.1% last month) compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of Occupancy summer season is down -65.9% (-50.7% last month) compared to last year at this
time
➢ No months are showing occupancy gains over last summer season
➢ July, August, September, and October are showing ADR gains over last summer season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire summer season there are 389,306 room nights available, a +2.2% (+1.6% last report)
increase over last summer season (380,986)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire summer season there are 37,415 room nights booked, a -65.1% (-50% last report)
decrease over last summer season (107,252)
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Winter Season:
➢ November has just come on the books and is showing 2.1% occupancy, down -14.3% over last year (2.5%)
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, winter season is down -17.5% compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of ADR, winter season is down -3.8% compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, winter season is down -14.3% compared to last year at this time
➢ No months have occupancy gains over last winter season
➢ No months have ADR gains over last winter season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire winter season there were 61,125 room nights available, a -1.8% decrease over last winter
season (62,246)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire winter season there were 1,287 room nights booked, a -15.8% decrease over last winter
season (1,529)
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DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
General DOR Notes:
➢ Due to data migration issues at each property, Arrabelle at Vail Square, The Lodge at Vail, and the Ritz-Carlton
Residences have not been included in this report. Once these issues have been resolved we will restate the
05/15 and 05/31 reports, contingent on receiving the 05/15 and 05/31 data sets from the 3 properties in
question.
➢ Since the last report (05/15), bookings activity for May 1st through November 30th has yielded a net of +3,330
or 3,330 bookings. This level of net booking activity has changed drastically from the last report (-12,120).
➢ As the net activity produced net positive bookings, the increase shows positive change in consumer behavior in
the last 2 weeks, a severe change in direction from the first 2 weeks of May. As we have not experienced a
consecutive report-over-report trend of net booking behavior since the 4/30 report, expected June activity
remains unclear and is expected to be influenced directly by public heath orders and the slow re-opening of the
economy.
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
May
➢ Since the last report, May experienced increases in bookings for every day reported as consumer behavior
continued to trend positive for the second consecutive report
o May actualized with -11,115 (-11,068 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Average daily performance experienced yet another slight decline to -15.0% (-14.7% last report) and is
characterized not by the loss of bookings since the last report, but the net loss versus the bookings
gained last year around this time
o Memorial Day Weekend was on average down -19.0% (-16.3% last report) and actualized with a total of
-1,433 (-1,211 last report) less bookings over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance occurred on the 23rd, down –28.9% (-716 less bookings) over last year
o No days outperformed last year
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 30th with +213 bookings added
o Inventory is lower than last year for the entire month
June
➢ June also experienced net positive booking behavior for everyday of the month, since the last report, as +2,037
bookings were added
o There are -29,341 (-27,494 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o June’s average daily performance is -37.4% (-37.2% last report)
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest underperformance is on the 4th, down -54.0% over last year at this time
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 1st, with +148 bookings added
o Inventory is lower than last year for the entire month
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July
➢ July’s trend of heavy cancellation volume noticed in the prior 2 reports has slowed down considerably, since the
last report, as only 10 days had net losses in bookings
o There are -18,578 (-18,578 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +1,028 (-5,562 last report) bookings for the month
o July’s average daily performance is -26.0% (-22.2% last report)
o The 4th of July is currently down -20.6% (-22.4% last report) with -605 (-606 last report) less bookings
over last year at this time
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 31st, with -173 bookings
cancelled
o The largest increase in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 4th, with +194 bookings added
o Inventory is lower than last year for the entire month
August
➢ August continues to have only 1 day outperforming last year (27th) as large cancellation volume continues for
the month
o There are -12,286 (-7,744 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Average daily performance fell to -13.8% (-7.8% last report)
o Only 9 days experienced a net increase in bookings since the last report
o Since the last report, there have been net -2,210 (-3,090 last report) bookings for the month
o The only outperformance is on the 27th, up +2.8% (+5.2% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on 14th, down -29.4% (-27.6% last report) and has shifted to the 11th,
down -32.7% over last year at this time
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 10th, with -332 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 16th, with +26 bookings added
o Inventory is lower than last year for the entire month
September
➢ September’s performance is starting to move further away from last year as bookings for the month are lagging
behind compared to last year at this time
o There are -4,491 (-3,372 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +39 (-1,545 last report) bookings for the month
o Average daily performance decreased to -3.9% (-2.3% last report)
o The largest outperformance is on the 14th up +11.0% (+16.1% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 7th, down -23.1% (-25.0% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 16th, with -164 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 19th, with +97 bookings added
o Inventory is lower than last year for the entire month
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October
➢ October performance is holding steady since last report as average daily performance has slightly decreased to -
2.3% (-2.2% last report)
o There are -2,378 (-2,353 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Halloween is currently down -1.7% over last year with -47 less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +402 bookings for the month
o The largest reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 25th, with -40 bookings
cancelled
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 3rd, with +64 bookings added
o The largest outperformance is on the 9th, up +8.4% (+6.8% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 19th, down -12.9% (-19.3% last report) compared to last year at
this time
o Inventory is lower than last year for the entire month
November
➢ November is also experiencing similar performance as to what was noticed last report as average daily
performance slightly improved to -0.2% (-0.3% last report)
o There are -425 (-507 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +241 bookings for the month
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 19th, with +34 bookings added
o The only reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 18th, with -2 bookings cancelled
o The largest outperformance is on the 14th, up +2.8% (+3.1% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 6th, down -6.7% (-6.9% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is lower than last year for the entire month