HomeMy WebLinkAbout06. Vail_Production_Notes_11-30-2020Copyright (c) 2020, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 11/30/2020
Vail Production Notes
RAO PRODUCTION NOTES:
General RAO Notes:
➢ 3 of the 7 months analyzed, January, March, and May, are showing an increase in inventory compared to last
year at this time
o November: -1,694 RNA or -56 units per day
o December: -103 RNA or -3 units per day
o January: +352 RNA or +11 units per day
o February: -2,281 RNA or -81 units per day
o March: +238 RNA or +8 units per day
o April: -1,494 RNA or -50 units per day
o May: +2,093 RNA or +68 units per day
➢ On the books occupancy (17.9%) is down -43.2% (-37.8% last month) over last year, while historic actual
occupancy (33.8%) is also down -26.8% (-31.1% last month) over last year
➢ On the books ADR ($545) is down -5.1% (-7.7% last month) over last year, while historic actual ADR ($258) is up
+7.9% (+5.5% last month) over last year
➢ On the books RevPAR ($98) is down -46.1% (-42.6% last month) over last year while historic actual RevPAR ($87)
is also down -21.0% (-27.2% last month) over last year
Winter Season:
➢ November gained +4.9% as an absolute measure of occupancy in November
o Bookings made in November for November are down -2.9% in absolute variance vs those made last year
in November for November
➢ December gained +6.6% as an absolute measure of occupancy in November
o Bookings made in November for December are down -3.0% in absolute variance vs those made last year
in November for December
➢ January gained +6.5% as an absolute measure of occupancy in November
o Bookings made in November for January are down -3.4% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
November for January
➢ February gained +4.6% as an absolute measure of occupancy in November
o Bookings made in November for February are down -3.4% in absolute variance vs those made last year
in November for February
➢ March gained +2.3% as an absolute measure of occupancy in November
o Bookings made in November for March are down -3.6% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
November for March
➢ April gained +0.3% as an absolute measure of occupancy in November
o Bookings made in November for April are down -1.6% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
November for April
➢ May has just come on the books and is showing 2.3% occupancy, down -56.7% over last year (5.3%)
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➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($108), winter season is down -42.9% (-42.6% last report) compared to last year at this
time
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($498), winter season is down -7.2% (-7.7% last report) compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (21.6%), winter season is down -38.5% (-37.8% last report) compared to last year at
this time
➢ No months show an occupancy gain over last winter season
➢ November and April show ADR gains over last winter season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire winter season there are 462,103 room nights available, a -1.1% (-1.1% last report)
decrease over last winter season (467,085)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire winter season there are 99,935 room nights booked, a -39.1% (-38.4% last report)
decrease over last winter season (164,174)
Summer Season:
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($5), summer season is down -44.6% (-27.2% last month) compared to last year at this
time
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($217), summer season is up +28.0% compared to last year at this time
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (2.3%), summer season is down -56.7% compared to last year at this time
➢ No months are experiencing occupancy gains over last summer season
➢ May is experiencing ADR gains over last summer season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire summer season there were 76,863 room nights available, a +2.8% increase over last
summer season (74,770)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire summer season there were 1,755 room nights booked, a -55.5% decrease over last
summer season (3,947)
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DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
General DOR Notes:
➢ Average Daily Performance for the current month and upcoming 6, November 1st, 2020 to May 31st, 2021, is
currently down -12.1% (-11.3 last report) compared to last year
➢ Since the last report (11/15), bookings activity for November 1st through May 31st, 2021 has yielded a net of
+19,669 or 19,669 new bookings. This level of net booking activity has increased from the last report (+11,243)
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
➢ New booking’s arrival date distribution of the total 19,669 (11,243 last report) added since last report:
o November: +1,713 (+2,082 last report) or 8.7% (18.5% last report)
o December: +5,777 (+2,044 last report) or 29.4% (18.2% last report)
o January: +5,685 (+2,768 last report) or 28.9% (24.6% last report)
o February: +4,348 (+2,130 last report) or 22.1% (18.9% last report)
o March: +3,278 (+1,765 last report) or 16.7% (15.7% last report)
o April: +374 (+454 last report) or 1.9% (4.1% last report)
o May: -1,506 or -7.7%
➢ Since the 11-15 report new booking’s arrival date distribution favored December, January, and February. April
gained a far smaller share than did last report, as did November, illustrating consumer’s preference toward the
holiday season and the core winter months. This was to be expected after the opening of reservations systems
and on-mountain lifts and will hopefully help to bolster the bookings in December and January that currently sit
at a collective 26,000 bookings less than last year at this time. In December, 40% of the net new bookings fell
between the 20th and the 31st of the month. In January, 63% of the net new bookings fell between the 1st and
the 18th, Martin Luther King Day. May experienced a net decline in bookings, the only month to experience a
decline, but remains a ski/snowboard season away and has plenty of time to realign bookings with pace made
last year. In totality, 67% or 13,175 of the net new bookings arrival date distribution falls within the next 90
days, a continuation of the trend noted over the summer season.
November
➢ November added a number of bookings similar to last report, though the booking pace was not enough to bring
the month to an outperformance versus last year, and as such, average daily performance is -1.7% (-1.8% last
report)
o There are -1,108 (-1,872 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +1,713 (+2,082 last report) bookings for the month
o Thanksgiving Day actualized down -4.9% (+0.7% last report) with -107 (-22 last report) less bookings
than last year at this time and has added +122 (+121 last report) bookings since the last report
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 9th, with +199 bookings added
o The largest outperformance was on the 22nd, up +5.0% (+5.4% last report) and has now shifted to the
9th, up +10.5% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 14th, down -5.8% (-9.3% last report), and has now shifted to
the 17th, down -8.3% last report over last year at this time
o Inventory is mostly higher than last year
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December
➢ While December added the most net new bookings since the last report, the booking pace is heavily
underperforming last year, while average daily performance has decreased further for to -13.5% (-11.4% last
report)
o There are -10,555 (-10,023 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +5,777 (+2,044 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest outperformance is on the 15th, up +4.4% (+4.3% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 25th, down -32.0% (-29.6% last report) over last year at this time
o Christmas Day is currently down -32.0% (-29.6% last report) with -830 (-787 last report) less bookings
than last year at this time and has added +173 (+49 last report) bookings since the last report
o New Year’s Eve is currently down -17.5% (-13.1% last report) with -440 (-376 last report) less bookings
than last year at this time and has added +229 (+112 last report) bookings since the last report
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 11th, with +284 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
January
➢ January has improved performance since the last report as a large number of net new bookings were added,
reducing the year-over-year bookings deficit by 1,000, and further improving average daily performance to -
19.8% (-20.4% last report)
o There are -15,807 (-16,814 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +5,685 (+2,768 last report) bookings for the month
o New Year’s Day is down -13.8% (-11.3% last report) with -343 (-327 last report) less bookings than last
year at this time and has added +248 (+142 last report) bookings since the last report
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest underperformance is on the 27th, down -32.8% (-33.9% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 8th, with +265 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
February
➢ February added twice the number of bookings as last report and has improved average daily performance to -
24.7% (-25.2% last report)
o There are -17,922 (-18,560 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +4,348 (+2,130 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 20th, with +204 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest underperformance is on the 28th, down -38.9% (-42.2% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
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March
➢ While March added a number of bookings almost double that of last report, the booking pace as compared to
last year is still thoroughly underperforming, and as such, average daily performance has declined further to -
14.5% (-14.2% last report)
o There are -11,551 (-11,777 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,278 (+1,765 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 5th, with +163 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 30th, up +4.6% (+1.7% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 1st, down -40.9% (-44.9% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
April
➢ April added a similar number of bookings as was noted last report, though this level of booking addition is far
below most months included, and has led to a further decrease in average daily performance to -6.9% (-6.4%
last report)
o There are -5,228 (-5,042 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +374 (+454 last report) bookings for the month
o Easter (4/4) is currently down -9.1% (-9.5% last report) with -237 (-253 last report) less bookings than
last year at this time and has added +40 (+31 last report) bookings since the last report
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 2nd, with +108 bookings added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 27th and 30th, with -21
bookings cancelled
o The only outperformance is on the 18th, up +0.5% (+1.1% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 3rd, down -26.0% (-26.9% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is mostly slightly higher than last year at this time
May
➢ May continues to experience heavy underperformance compared to last year as average daily performance has
declined further to -4.1% (-0.3% last report)
o There are -2,997 (-307 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net -1,506 bookings for the month
o The only net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 19th, with +48 bookings added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 17th, with -201 bookings
cancelled
o The largest outperformance was on the 12th, down -5.0% (+11.9% last report), and has now shifted to
the 31st, up +2.8% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 19th, down -8.8% (-10.5% last report), and has now shifted to
the 11th, down -11.8% over last year at this time
o Inventory is higher than last year at this time