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Inntopia Winter lookback- Summer look forward - Vail Town Council - 2021-06-15Vail Town Council June 15, 2021 Data as of May 31, 2021 Presented by Tom Foley 2 Ongoing Look: New Jobless Claims Better Jan 2020 May 2021 Jan 2020 May 2021220,000 6,867,000 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 New Jobless Claims Jan 4, 2020 to Mar 29, 2021 719,000 904,000 385,000 - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 Jobless Claims: Detail 6 Months Through May 29, 2021 3 Ongoing Look: Continuous Claims Leveling Jan 2020 May 2021 Nov 28 May 291,759,000 24,912,000 - 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 Continuing Jobless Claims Jan 4 2020 to May 29, 2021 5,829,000 3,794,000 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 Continuing Jobless Claims: Detail 6 Months Through May 29, 2021 4 Economy: Dow, Confidence, Unemployment 14.7% 85.7 Dow Jones Unemployment Confidence 34,530 5.8% 117.2 21,920 Reports with data as of May 31, 2021 include: 28 Vail properties representing 2,286 units 60.3% of total community census 18 Western Destinations representing 183 properties and ~22,000 units ~58% of total regional industry census 5 Vail Property Participation 6 Vail Winter Room Nights Variances 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 1 Yr Chg 2 Yr Chg Room Nights Available 463,385 470,514 463,477 -1.5%0.0% Room Nights Booked 214,952 200,886 251,559 7.0%-14.6% Occupancy 46.4%42.7%54.3%8.6%-14.5% -11.0%-19.4%-23.0%-18.6%110.9%1980.7%8.6%-12.9%-18.5%-24.3%-18.0%-4.8%-3.7%-14.5%-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Winter % Change Occupancy: 20/21 vs 19/20 and 18/19 Occupancy: Winter 2020/21 vs 2019/20 Occupancy: Winter 2020/21 vs 2018/19 24.9%45.5%49.6%60.3%66.4%30.0%46.4% 7 Vail Occupancy Winter 20/21 Industry Up 4.9% Down -18.2% 21.7%-12.4%-13.0%-9.5%-4.0%225.0%-11.5%21.4%-4.4%-12.5%-10.9%-3.3%28.4%-5.6%-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Winter % Change ADR: 20/21 vs 19/20 and 18/19 ADR: Winter 2020/21 vs 2019/20 ADR: Winter 2020/21 vs 2018/19 8 Vail ADR Winter 20/21 $262 $554 $496 $552 $545 $320 $491 Industry Down -9.4% Down -1.2% 9 Vail RevPAR Winter 20/21 8.3%-29.4%-33.0%-26.3%102.4%6662.9%-3.9%5.8%-22.1%-33.8%-26.9%-7.9%23.6%-19.3%-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Winter % Change RevPAR: 20/21 vs 19/20 and 18/19 RevPAR: Winter 2020/21 vs 2019/20 RevPAR: Winter 2020/21 vs 2018/19 $65 $252 $246 $333 $362 $96 $228 Industry Down -5.0% Down -19.2% Avg Daily Net Bookings: All Arrival Dates, National Week of Transaction, All Arrival Dates Absolute Avg Bookings Per Day by Week Booked All Arrival Dates Absolute Bookings 2021 Absolute Bookings 2020 Absolute Bookings 2019 •Consistent increases over 2020 (duh) and 2019 •Volume was strong through Dec / Jan •Late Season surge linked to declining incidence of disease / increased vax •Higher % of Feb –March bookings arriving in summer months than usual Avg Daily Net Bookings: All Arrival Dates, National Week of Transaction, All Arrival Dates Absolute Average Cancellations Per Day by Week Cancelled All Arrival Dates Cancellations 2021 Cancellations 2020 Cancellations 2019•Cancellations down dramatically in January & February •Most cancellations in late season for late season arrival •High incidence of rebooking to summer months •Cancels remain 60% higher than in 2019 •At par with this time last year Time Series: National Booking Lead Times 3.86.211.715.612.319.014.711.818.322.17.67.48.613.78.717.20 5 10 15 20 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 Week 19 Week 20 Week 21 Week 22 January February March April May # Days Difference: 2021 vs 2020Average # of Days Before Arrival Booking MadeWeekly Average Booking Lead Times 2021 & 2019 CY v 2YA 2021 2019•Booking Lead Times have been extended for most of the past 16 months •Avg Bookings now made 22.3% further in advance than in 2019 •Late season surge as focus shifted to summer •Laying down strong summer foundation •Expect this pattern to remain •Cancellations lead times down by approx. 19% compared to 2019 (not shown) 13 Demand Wave: Summer Heats Up Early -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Incremental Fill Wave 0-90 Day & 91-180 Day Arrivals 0-90 Day Arrivals 91-180 Day Arrivals Historic On The Books Paid Occupancy% Chg in Paid Occupancy18% 39% 52% 35% 20% 9% 29% 4%6% 16% 13%14% 6% 10% 14% 44% 49% 40% 30%30% Data as of May 31 (2020/21 season)Data as of May 31 (2019/20 season)Historic Actual (2019/20 season)Percent Variance May '21 Jun '21 Jul'21 Aug'21 Sep'21 Oct'21 Summer Total %0 %20 %40 %60 %80 %100 14 Vail Occupancy Summer 2021 352.4%519.7%223.9%174.2%50.7%59.3%195.8% 15 Vail Occupancy Summer 2021 vs 2020 & 2019 352.4%519.7%223.9%174.2%50.7%59.3%195.8%-10.4%-11.4%17.9%18.8%4.8%-2.9%3.7%-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150% 170% 190% Summer % Change Occupancy: 2021 vs 2020 and 2019 Occupancy: Summer 2021 vs Summer 2020 Occupancy: Summer 2021 vs Summer 2019 Historic On The Books Average Daily Rate% Chg in Average Daily Rate$191$280$349$325$253$203$293$133$231$326$310$228$187$263$214$288$272$248$217$254Data as of May 31 (2020/21 season)Data as of May 31 (2019/20 season)Historic Actual (2019/20 season)Percent Variance May '21 Jun '21 Jul'21 Aug'21 Sep'21 Oct'21 Summer Total 0$ 50$ 100$ 150$ 200$ 250$ 300$ 350$ 400$ 16 Vail ADR Summer 2021 42.9%21.1%7.1%4.7%10.6%8.5%11.7% 17 Vail ADR Summer 2021 vs 2020 & 2019 42.9%21.1%7.1%4.7%10.6%8.5%11.3%14.9%22.4%20.4%15.1%14.9%0.0%19.8%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Summer % Change ADR: 2021 vs 2020 and 2019 ADR: Summer 2021 vs Summer 2020 ADR: Summer 2021 vs Summer 2019 Historic On The Books Revenue Per Available Room% Chg in Revenue Per Available Room$35$109$180$114$51$19$85$5$15$52$40$31$11$26$30$126$132$98$65$76Data as of May 31 (2020/21 season)Data as of May 31 (2019/20 season)Historic Actual (2019/20 season)Percent Variance May '21 Jun '21 Jul'21 Aug'21 Sep'21 Oct'21 Summer Total 0$ 25$ 50$ 75$ 100$ 125$ 150$ 175$ 200$ 18 Vail RevPAR Summer 2021 546.4%650.6%246.9%187.2%66.7%72.8%229.2% 19 Vail RevPAR Summer 2021 vs 2020 & 2019 546.4%650.6%246.9%187.2%66.7%72.8%229.2%3.0%8.5%41.9%36.7%20.4%-2.8%24.3%-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% Summer % Change RevPAR: 2021 vs 2020 and 2019 RevPAR: Summer 2021 vs Summer 2020 RevPAR: Summer 2021 vs Summer 2019 20 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2021 vs 2020 Historic On The Books Date (Gridlines aligned with Saturdays)Total Occupancy RateData as of May 31 (2020/21) 27 properties Data as of May 31 (2019/20) 27 properties Historic Actual (2019/20)% Occupancy change % Occupancy change as of last period01 May 2108 May 2115 May 2122 May 2129 May 2105 Jun 2112 Jun 2119 Jun 2126 Jun 2103 Jul 2110 Jul 2117 Jul 2124 Jul 2131 Jul 2107 Aug 2114 Aug 2121 Aug 2128 Aug 2104 Sep 2111 Sep 2118 Sep 2125 Sep 2102 Oct 2109 Oct 2116 Oct 2123 Oct 2130 Oct 21%20 - %0 %20 %40 %60 %80 %100 21 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2021 vs 2019 Historic On The Books Date (Gridlines aligned with Saturdays)Total Occupancy RateData as of May 31 (2020/21) 27 properties Data as of May 31 (2018/19) 27 properties Historic Actual (2018/19)% Occupancy change % Occupancy change as of last period01 May 2108 May 2115 May 2122 May 2129 May 2105 Jun 2112 Jun 2119 Jun 2126 Jun 2103 Jul 2110 Jul 2117 Jul 2124 Jul 2131 Jul 2107 Aug 2114 Aug 2121 Aug 2128 Aug 2104 Sep 2111 Sep 2118 Sep 2125 Sep 2102 Oct 2109 Oct 2116 Oct 2123 Oct 2130 Oct 21%0 %100 %50 - %25 - %25 %50 %75 22 Key Points Economy: •Consumer confidence = supplier strength •Hiring an issue for the industry AND the overall economic recovery •Financial markets –still in their own little world, but influential nonetheless •US/Canada border. New discussions on reopening before fall Trends: •Booking lead times extended & will stay that way •“Demand Wave” will soften over coming months •Length of Stay remains above 2019 numbers. Sustainable for mid-term Winter: •“Recovery (YOY) Vail overperformed industry Summer •Dramatically ahead of last year •Building on all-time record from 2019 Long-Term: •Uncertainty for cooler months ahead, but systems in place if needed Thank You!